This video presents the method which can assess the fraction of attributable risk of a severe weather event due to an external driver in real-time. Read the related report here.

Within the last decade, extreme weather event attribution has emerged as a new field of science and garnered increasing attention from the wider scientific community and the public. Numerous methods have been put forward to determine the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to individual extreme weather events. So far nearly all such analyses were done months after an event has happened.

If we are able to present evidence for a causal link (or the absence of it) between a specific extreme event and climate change, the public will more likely understand the reality and the extent of the problem and it will be harder to dismiss climate change or to blame it as the sole cause, respectively. Disaster risk management can be improved and the science on the topic of climate change can be advanced.

Read the related technical report here: Real-time extreme weather event attribution with forecast seasonal sea surface temperatures

The report and video were first posted on IOPscience here.