Climate change is expected to result in a warmer, drier climate in the Caribbean region. The altered climate is expected to have widereaching impacts on agriculture. This policy brief describes work carried out by the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) in partnership with the University of the West Indies (UWI), which used climate predictions and crop suitability models to assess the likely impact of climate change on crops grown in Trinidad & Tobago.

Key points:

• By 2050, Trinidad & Tobago is expected to show a significant reduction in the area suitable for growing tomato. Alternative crops such as cassava, sweet potato, and yam are good diversification alternatives.
• The cocoa crop is expected to be more resilient to climatic changes; nonetheless, as a high value perennial crop, precautions should be taken to ensure plantations have access to irrigation during infrequent, severe dry periods.
• By 2050, the climate suitability of all of the crops analysed is expected to increase in the upland areas and surrounding mountain ranges. As these areas are mainly forested, there is a risk of agricultural encroachment into protected forest areas.
• There is great potential to reduce possible negative impacts of climatic changes through targeted policy recommendations (outlined below).

Picture: Georgia Popplewell