The primary aim of this study was to investigate the impact of climate variability and change on the occurrence of dengue fever in the Belize District. The objectives of the study were to:

• determine the effects of climate, in particular precipitation and temperature, on dengue fever occurrence
• explore the effects of a changing climate in terms of health to communities, decision making, planning, social behaviour and practices in the 2050s
• discuss consequent repercussions for the health sector as a whole

The findings of the study are presented both in terms of scientific data and terms of implications for policy and planning, as increased risk of disease is a major adaptation concern. These findings include:

• Statistical analysis shows a positive association between precipitation, minimum temperature and dengue fever.
• Climate projections for the 2050s show decreases in mean wet-day precipitation from May to September, with an increase in rainfall variability and heavy rainfall in October and November.
• The general increase in Maximum (Tmax) and Minimum temperature (Tmin) in the 2050s indicates warming for that period.
• The Weather Generator/Threshold Detector outputs show a decrease in the number of days where Tmax exceeds 20C but does not exceed 32C- which implies less favourable conditions for dengue fever. However the findings also show an increase in the number of days where Tmin is greater than 18C and hence more favourable conditions for dengue fever.
• Apart from the possibility of climate related impact on dengue fever occurrence, non-climate issues such as changes in dengue fever classification and reporting over the years 2007-2014, should be kept in mind together with social and economic drivers and conditioning factors

Picture: coniferconifer via Flickr