Climate change is affecting coastal ecosystems globally, with severe implications for developing countries heavily reliant on their natural resources for economic growth. In Belize, coral reefs, mangroves and beaches are the cornerstone of the tourism industry and coastal communities rely on mangrove and reef-based fisheries for food security and income. Growth of the tourism industry is viewed as inherent to economic development in Belize but is often accompanied by habitat degradation that directly threatens the resources upon which the industry depends. The challenge faced by decision-makers is how best to move forward with tourism development whilst maintaining healthy, functional ecosystems that support the tourism industry, sustain livelihoods and provide resilience to climate change.

The efforts discussed in this report are part of a three prong project aimed at i) assessing the vulnerability of Belize's tourism system to climate change, including the coastal ecosystems on which it depends; ii) assessing how current policies facilitate or hinder climate-compatible tourism development based on healthy coastal ecosystems; and iii) exploring the policy reforms and adaptation strategies required to enhance ecosystem resilience to climate change and foster tourism development, at a local and national scale. The overarching research question addressed by the project include:

1. Which tourism areas are most and least vulnerable to the impacts of climate change?
2. What are the key policy instruments that are supporting or hindering Belize’s ability to make progress in achieving climate-compatible coastal tourism development, and where are the gaps in existing policy?
3. What are the key strategies necessary for enhancing Belize’s potential for climate compatible tourism development based on healthy coastal ecosystems?

The results discussed in this report are based on efforts and findings related to question #1: Which tourism areas are most and least vulnerable to the impacts of climate change that should be prioritized for adaptation action?

With limited resources to invest in adapting to current and future changes, decision makers are faced with tough decision about where to target investment. Identifying particularly vulnerable areas and the factors that contribute to vulnerability can inform such decisions. Multiple vulnerability assessments have been carried out in Belize for different geographic areas, sectors and ecosystems, such as tourism (Richardson, 2007), mangroves (Cherrington et al., 2010), and the coastal zone (CATIE/TNC, 2012), resulting in numerous datasets and maps. Information from these initiatives and other available datasets was reviewed, mapped where possible and aggregated to give a picture of the current status and vulnerability of Belize's coastal areas used for tourism or designated for future tourism development. The factors that contribute to vulnerability in these locations are also highlighted.

Picture: F. Ermert