This policy brief explores the consequences of climate change on cocoa and tomato production in Jamaica. The report describes work carried out by the International Center for Tropical Agriculture (CIAT) in partnership with the University of the West Indies (UWI), which used climate predictions and crop suitability models to assess the likely impact of climate change on crops grown in Jamaica.

Key messages:

• Given expected changes in temperature and rainfall patterns, Jamaica may suffer considerable losses in tomato crop productivity due to a reduction of more than 20% in the area suitable for the crop by 2050. In addition to this, there may be reductions in suitable growing areas due to other climate-related phenomena, such as increasing climate variability and frequency of extreme events such as hurricanes and land loss due to sea-level rise.
• Cocoa is likely to have small suitability reductions, affirming the high resistance of the crop in relation to temperature increases. However, the drier areas of the islands will face more severe impacts due to cocoa’s high sensitivity to drought.
• Crops such as cassava, sweet potato, and yam are good diversification alternatives. Their climate suitability in Jamaica is expected to remain and even increase in the face of climate change.
• In 2050, the climate suitability of all crops monitored in this study will increase in certain areas, mainly towards the median altitudinal gradients situated around the high mountains of the islands. As these areas are currently used for forest conservation or the production of other crops with equal economic importance, land-use pressure is likely to increase.
• Although there are areas where the monitored crops will likely gain suitability, shifting climatic conditions mean their geographic distribution is expected to change in the coming decades. Long-term monitoring will be required to ensure the most suited crops are grown in each area.
• Climate variability is just as (if not more) important as long-term climatic changes. For example, extreme weather events such as hurricanes make it difficult for farmers to plan and think long term.

Picture: Tom Coady