• Belize has a total area of 8,867 square miles (22,700 square km) and as of 2010, a population of 322,453. Approximately 18% of the population lives in Belize City which is the country’s main port, financial centre and tourism hub.
• The climate change projections analysed here indicate a substantial increase in temperature, particularly in June, July and August, and a decrease in rainfall during these months, especially nearer the end of the century.
• There may also be an increase in the intensity and variability of rainfall in the last months of the year. These changes may pose more problems for Belize City which is already prone to flooding, even from a few hours of rainfall.

The purpose of this case study was to:

• Briefly explore the problems faced by Belize City especially in terms of flood risk and intense rainfall.
• Demonstrate the possible uses of the Weather Generator tool outputs by reviewing future projections of rainfall, temperature and extreme events for the City.
• Assess the implications of these projected changes for the Belize City area and populace and provide policy-relevant information.
• Suggest issues to be addressed in planning and policy making in relation to weather events that may impact the Belize City area and suggest areas for further research.

The main motivation for this study was to look at flood risk and urban development in Belize City. The City has experienced many issues in its past including frequent flooding, poor drainage and unplanned urban growth and development. It is very flat (basically at sea level) and this makes drainage of water very difficult - creating flooding situations which are compounded by the lack of proper drainage planning in the past.

Picture: Padraic Ryan