This case study summarizes the results of past and future drought assessment in the Caribbean, particularly in the Eastern Caribbean. The study was developed using the CARiDRO tool and the Regional Climate Model outputs that are embedded in it. The results show that future drought such as observed in 2009-2010 will occur more frequently and will also be more intense and extended in space. This result has strong implications for different sectors including agriculture and water. The tool use here has been recognized as a very useful one but some suggestions are made to improve its utility.

This CARIWIG case study was carried out in order to determine the risk of having a drought similar to that which was experienced between October 2009 and April 2010 in the Eastern Caribbean. As described by Farrel et al (2010), the impacts of this drought were significant in a number of different sectors (water, agriculture and food prices) in most of the Caribbean countries. Thus, this event exposed severe deficiencies in the region’s ability to cope with drought. In particular the intention of the case study was to:

• Verify certain characteristics of the event: duration and intensity; and
• Determine the potential recurrence of this kind of event between 2011-2070

Picture: European Commission DG ECHO