Uganda is highly vulnerable to climate change due to its heavy dependence on rain-fed agriculture. More than 80% of the Ugandan people make their living this way and the sector contributes over 60% of the country’s export earnings. Recently, erratic and unseasonal rainfall has cost the country over US$60 million in crop losses per year.

Economic assessments of the impacts of climate change have proven to be the catalyst for increased attention to and investment in climate change, which has spurred significant progress on climate change policy development and increased climate-related investments. Uganda is in the final stages of developing a National Climate Change Policy. It is expected that the economic assessment study will inform and help shape the roll-out of the policy by directing investments where they are most needed to safeguard the Ugandan economy from the adverse impacts of climate change.  The results of this project could also help support and inform the mainstreaming of climate change into the next National Development Plan and the sectoral plans for water and agriculture as well as Uganda’s long-term national planning document Vision 2040.

Demand for the economic assessment of the impacts of climate change in Uganda originated from Uganda’s Ministry of Water and Environment’s Climate Change Unit (CCU).  In addition, the Ministry of Finance Planning and Economic Development (MoFPED) and the National Planning Authority (NPA) have also expressed support for the project.

Overall study objective

The overall purpose of this project is to assess the economic impacts of climate change for Uganda with a focus on climate-sensitive sectors of the economy.  It will develop an economic model, disaggregated at the sectoral and district levels, to assess the economic impact of climate change on climate-sensitive sectors. The results of the economic assessment will feed into the decision-making process around budgetary allocations, at national, sectoral and district levels. Knowledge dissemination to decision-makers will be an important aspect to raise awareness of the economic case for investment in Climate Compatible Development (CCD) policies in Uganda.

The supplier team comprises  consortium of  Baastel, Makerere University,Metroeconomica, and the Centre for International Development and Training at the University of Wolverhampton.

The team will work closely with the Government of Uganda and the Ministry of Water and Environment to undertake the study. This 18-month contract includes, but is not limited to, the following activities:

• Undertaking consultations with relevant Ministries and stakeholders to refine the scope of the study
• Developing a conceptual framework on the economic assessment
• Developing or adapting an economic model using the most advanced, proven and appropriate techniques, including an aggregated analysis at the national level, sector assessments and selected district-level assessments.
• Developing 2-3 case studies of the economic impacts of climate change at district-level
• Identifying relevant climatic and economic data required for the assessment
• Calculating the economic impact of climate change on identified key sectors
• Documenting the analysis, including the economic model developed, the methodology and the results.
• Carrying out policy dialogues and stakeholder consultations on the findings and implications of the assessment
• Monitoring and evaluation and reporting activities.