Jamaica by virtue of its location in the path of the Atlantic hurricane tracks gets severely affected by tropical storms and hurricanes which cause extensive flooding and consequent damage to life and property. As reported in the IPCC Assessment reports the intensity of hurricanes and tropical storms in the Atlantic basin is projected to increase, and this will thus significantly affect Jamaica. Dr Arpita Mandal of the Department of Geography and Geology at the University of West Indies Mona Campus (Principal Investigator ) and Dr Matthew Wilson of the Department of Geography, University of the West Indies, St Augustine (Co-PI) embarked on this interesting and highly relevant project for two watersheds of Jamaica. The project commenced in January 2013 and was funded by the Climate and Development Knowledge Network (CDKN), managed by The CARIBSAVE Partnership.

One of the main driving questions of the project was "What are the potential impacts of climate change on Jamaica’s vulnerability to flooding from extreme events?

To respond to this the project involved building flood inundation models for the Yallahs and South Negril Orange river watersheds using present and future climate projections of rainfall data. Hydrological and hydraulic model were created for the above mentioned watersheds using HEC HMS (hydrological modelling systems software) and LISFLOOD-FP (hydraulic model). The models were run for tropical storm Gustav and for 25, 50 and 100 yr rainfall return periods. Future climate projections for the end of the century (2080's) , received from the Climate Studies Group, UWI MONA, headed by Professor Michael Taylor were conditioned on the present rainfall data to create future flood risk maps for the watersheds. The project also targeted vulnerable communities of the study areas (Yallahs in the Blue and John Crow Mountain National Park) and Negril in the South Negril Orange river watershed. Community surveys, meetings and an awareness programme was conducted in Yallahs by Jamaica Conservation and Development Trust (JCDT) and by student of UWI Institute of Sustainable Development for the Negril area.

The findings from this project were presented at a stakeholder consultation workshop at the University of the West Indies, Mona Campus from May 14-16, 2014. The workshop was led by Dr Arpita Mandal and Dr Matthew Wilson and was attended by 35 participants from different Government agencies. The workshop involved presentation of the project findings as well as a training session on Hydrological Model (HEC HMS) and Hydraulic Model (LISFLOOD-FP) by Drs Mandal and Wilson. Participants were involved in group assignments and were actively involved in discussions on flood hazards in Jamaica, impacts of climate change and possible adaptation measures.

Picture: Christina Xu