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REPORT: Land-use change, food security and climate change in Vietnam: A global-to-local modelling approach

Land use is directly related to development, food security and climate change in Vietnam. The agricultural sector, which is the dominant land-using sector in the country, accounts for 21% of GDP. Seventy-one per cent of the population reside in rural areas, most of whom are small-scale farmers that produce paddyrice, the main staple food in Vietnam and also an important export product. Changes in land use patterns over time also play a crucial role in climate change mitigation and adaptation. Before the year 2000, more than 50% of greenhouse gas emissions in Vietnam were attributable to agriculture and land-use change.

At the same time, Vietnam is considered as one of the countries in the world that is most vulnerable to climate change. Flooding and extreme weather events are expected to impose substantial risks to agricultural production, in particular in the two major delta regions (Red River Delta and Mekong River Delta), where most paddy rice areas are located. To address these issues, decision makers in Vietnam need to be aware about the complex and uncertain relationships between global and local drivers of land-use change and take a forward look when formulating food security and climate change mitigation and adaptation policies. This in-depth report, Land-use change, food security and climate change in Vietnam: A global-to-local modelling approach, presents an innovative modelling approach to visualise future land-use change patterns under different scenarios. The results can be used to evaluate policies such as the Green Growth and REDD strategies that are currently being developed and implemented. The same approach can also be applied to guide food security and climate change policies in other countries.

This publication is part of the project, A global-to-local modelling approach to land use dynamics in Vietnam: Potential effects of a high climate impact and a high economic growth scenario, which aims to provide better insights about future land use change in Vietnam and how this relates to climate change and food security in Vietnam.

Further reading:

Project homepage: Land use policy optimization: integrating global to local approaches to enhance land use planning capacity and governance in Vietnam
Research paper: A global-to-local modelling approach to land use dynamics in Vietnam: Potential effects of a high climate impact and a high economic growth scenario
Policy brief: Land Use, Food Security and Climate Change in Vietnam
Policy brief: A global-to-local model approach to assess future land use dynamics: An application to Vietnam