Managing seasonal climate risks for food production more effectively is a critical challenge in southern Africa where highly variable rainfed environments and projected long-term increases aridity pose serious risks to agriculture in the region. Seasonal climate forecasts are an important planning tool at the farm level that can lead to better management of seasonal climate risks and instil processes useful to longer-term adaptation. However, at present, farmer access to existing seasonal forecasts is poor, and the ability of farmers to properly interpret such information to benefit farming operations is inadequate (Johnston, 2011).

This report, Improving Seasonal Forecast Information for Managing On-farm Decisions, examines how seasonal forecast development and delivery could be enhanced by testing the ability of downscaled climate forecasts to improve information available from seasonal forecasts; by assessing the use of an optimisation procedure to guide tactical decision making; and subsequently indicate where improvements in communicating seasonal forecast information could be made.

Further reading:

This project and publication has been produced as part of the START call for research on the theme of ‘Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security’ in Africa, with an emphasis on the sustainability of ecosystem services in Africa. Objectives of this call are to commission high quality, independent, policy-relevant and credible research to support policy making for sustainable development in the region, to build the capacities of regional research partners to conduct high level research and to create a platform for knowledge sharing at the regional level. The funding has been provided by US National Science Foundation, Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) and CDKN.

START homepage: START
Research call information: Regional Research Call – Africa

START projects:

• Safety Nets Simplified: Simulated Decision-Making in Volatile Developing Economies
• Management of Ecosystem Services of the Forests of Southwest Nigeria in Support of Rural livelihoods and Food Security
• Reducing tropical deforestation and the Protection of Ecosystem Services to support food security in Southwest Cameroon
• Sustainable Farmland management in the context of climate change in inland valleys of Southern Benin
• Changes in Tree Reproductive Phenology: Causes and Implications in and around Budongo Forest Reserve, Uganda
• Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources, Agriculture and Food Security in the Ethiopian Rift Valley: Risk Assessment and Adaptation Strategies for Sustainable Ecosystem Services
• Integrating Indigenous Knowledge and Scientific Methods for Flood Risk Analyses, Responses and Adaptation in Rural Coastal Communities in Nigeria
• Community-based management of ecosystems and natural resources for the improvement of rural livelihoods and food security in the Nigerian Savannah
• Engaging farmers and climatologists in Adaptation to climate variability and change in the Okavango Delta of Botswana
• The role of Urban and peri-urban agriculture in enhancing food security and climate change resilience in East and West African Cities
• Assessing Adaptation Responses by Smallholder Farmers in Northern Ghana to Climate Change and Biodiversity Loss
• The Impact of Climate Change on Food Security Among Coastal Communities of Keiskamma, in the Eastern Cape, South Africa
• Sensitivity of Coastal Lagoon Ecosystems to Climate and Related Global Changes: Developing a North African Lagoons Network

Image credit: Neil Palmer/CIAT