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REPORT: A global-to-local modelling approach to land use dynamics in Vietnam: Potential effects of a high climate impact and a high economic growth scenario

Land plays a crucial role in the development process of Vietnam. Not only does the agricultural land using sector in Vietnam account for a substantial share of GDP (approximately twenty per cent including forestry and fisheries), a large part of the Vietnamese population (over sixty per cent) resides in rural areas, mostly consisting of poor and small-scale farmers involved in the production of paddy rice, making the agricultural sector key to poverty reduction and food security. Food security is a concern since, even though Vietnam is the second largest exporter of rice, many rural households are net buyers of food. Vietnam experienced one of the fastest increases in food prices in early 2008, and, consequently, has been classified as one of the hunger hot spots in Asia and the Pacific.

This research paper, A global-to-local modelling approach to land use dynamics in Vietnam: Potential effects of a high climate impact and a high economic growth scenario, presents an innovative assessment method which integrates a global macro-economic Computable General Equilibrium model with a spatial land use allocation model to analyse future land use patterns in Vietnam under various scenarios. The scenarios include: (1) a baseline scenario reflecting the ‘Business as Usual’ (BaU) and simulates a growth path for Vietnam and the rest of the world assuming no implementation of new policies, (2) a High Climate Impact (HCI) scenario that reveals the consequences of climate change on Vietnam’s economy and land use (modelled primarily through yields) and (3) a High Economic Growth (HEG) scenario which implements the growth target incorporated in the Socio-Economic Development Strategy (SEDS) of Vietnam and yield targets of Vietnam’s Master Plan on Agriculture and demonstrates the consequences for Vietnam’s economic structure and national and local land use. The outcomes of the scenario analyses can be used to identify challenges and opportunities, and to inform policies in the areas of land use, climate change and the overall economy.

The paper is part of the CDKN-funding project, Land use policy optimization: integrating global to local approaches to enhance land use planning capacity and governance in Vietnam, which aims to enhance capacity for multiple-objective land use planning in Vietnam by building a knowledge infrastructure platform that provides:

  • space that brings together policy-makers, researchers, NGOs, donors and other stakeholders to define objectives for land use in Vietnam
  • infrastructure (i.e. the data, scenarios, models and tools) to enable the development of optimised land policies.

Further reading:

Project homepage: Land use policy optimization: integrating global to local approaches to enhance land use planning capacity and governance in Vietnam
Research paper: A global-to-local modelling approach to land use dynamics in Vietnam: Potential effects of a high climate impact and a high economic growth scenario
Policy brief: Land Use, Food Security and Climate Change in Vietnam
Report: Land-use change, food security and climate change in Vietnam: A global-to-local modelling approach

 

Image credit: CIAT