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POLICY BRIEF: A global-to-local model approach to assess future land use dynamics: An application to Vietnam

Land plays a crucial role in the development process of Vietnam. With a GDP share of 21 percent and a rural population share of 41 percent, most of which are poor small scale farmers involved in the production of paddy rice, the agricultural sector is key to poverty reduction and food security. Land use, land use change and forestry also plays a crucial role in climate change mitigation and adaptation. At the moment the Vietnamese government is in the process of drafting a Green Growth strategy and a special plan to reduce emissions from agriculture. Vietnam also recently completed the final approval of the REDD program document and is now in the inception and implementation phase.

However, future land use in Vietnam is expected to change considerably as a result of global trade, economic growth and structural change and national land use policies. This publication, A global-to-local model approach to assess future land use dynamics: An application to Vietnam,  describes a methodology in which a global economic simulation model and a land use allocation model have been linked to capture the impact of global drivers and spatial policies on future land use dynamics. A Business As Usual scenario for the period 2010-2030 is implemented and results for Vietnam are presented. The findings indicate that structural change in the Vietnamese economy will continue resulting result in a more demand for commercial forestry land and less for paddy rice land. Finally, a Vietnamese land use map for 2030 is presented. The results for the Business as Usual scenario will be used as a reference to examine the impact of alternative futures (e.g. climate change, global regulation and integration) and national plans and policies (e.g. Green Growth Strategy) on land use in Vietnam.

Further reading:

Project homepage: Land use policy optimization: integrating global to local approaches to enhance land use planning capacity and governance in Vietnam
Research paper: A global-to-local modelling approach to land use dynamics in Vietnam: Potential effects of a high climate impact and a high economic growth scenario
Policy brief: Land Use, Food Security and Climate Change in Vietnam
Report: Land-use change, food security and climate change in Vietnam: A global-to-local modelling approach