Mozambique is exposed to a number of climate hazards – including droughts, floods and cyclones, as well as incremental climate change, including temperature increases and changes in rainfall, and the impacts of sea level rise.  Mozambique is a Least Developed Country, and is ranked 184th on the worldwide scale of development, the United Nations Human Development Index.  Climate hazards add additional stress to the development context in and threaten to undermine achievements made to date.

Since climate hazards often give rise to disasters, the National Disaster Management Institute (INGC) begun a process of assessing how climate change will influence disaster risk.  Its first phase of research assessed the likely impacts of climate change, and its second phase has built on this by developing and assessing the appropriateness of solutions.  To date, analysis of the climate change impacts on health, however, has not elaborated the nature and distribution of these impacts, prompting the government of Mozambique to approach CDKN to undertake an empirical analysis of the linkages between climate change and health.  The evidence base created by this study informed the implementation of the National Climate Change Strategy, and the Health Sector Strategic Strategy, which commenced in 2013.

The study began in June 2012, and was undertaken by a team from Kulima Integrated Development Solutions, the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) and Universidade Eduardo Mondlane.  Initial stakeholder and project mapping took place, charting relevant actors and initiatives in the climate change and health fields.  Research has been undertaken to assess the current spatial distribution and prevalence of major illnesses, such as malaria, cholera/diarrhoeal disease, tuberculosis, oncocerciasis (river blindness), and HIV/AIDS, as well as nutrition and food security (which is closely related to vulnerability to ill health).  Downscaled projections for future climate have also been made available from the latest CSIR and Climate Systems Analysis Group (CSAG) research, as outlined in a handbook on Climate Risk and Vulnerability in the SADC region.

In order to determine how future climate change may influence the disease burden, a qualitative methodology based on expert judgement was recently undertaken in Maputo.  In addition to members of the project team, the meeting was attended by experts from the steering committee ministries (Ministry for the Coordination of Environmental Affairs, Ministry of Health, and the National Disaster Management Institute), the Food and Nutrition Security Secretariat and the World Bank.

The results of the expert judgement has informed high resolution case studies, which took place in 2013 in two districts in Nampula province (Nampula City and Memba), and two districts in Manica province (Machaze and Macossa) – chosen for their different risk profiles and the fact that they have been overlooked for previous studies and interventions.

The final report of the project, containing results of the expert judgement analysis and high resolution case studies and recommendations, was published in January 2013 and is accessible here.

Image courtesy of IRD Voices