Background

Changes in weather patterns and extreme conditions due to climate change have severe implications for the energy sector. Such changes can disrupt and affect the energy supply, oil and gas production, and power distribution, among other things. As such, the energy infrastructure in most Central Asian countries is highly sensitive to climate change impacts.

The Central Asia region also remains the most energy-inefficient in the world both in terms of production and consumption. Yet, energy demand in the region is expected to rise by 2030 with fossil fuels being the prime source of energy production. In fact, Tajikistan, along with a few other central Asian countries, has huge potential to generate power using hydro and thermal power.

To ensure climate resilient energy infrastructure and continued provision of basic services to the public and industry, governments in these countries need to understand the inherent vulnerabilities in their energy sectors. They also need to develop flexible adaptation strategies for existing and planned infrastructure.

Scope of Work

CDKN partnered with the World Bank’s ESMAP (Energy Sector Management Assistance Program) to tackle these issues. Building on ESMAP’s existing work and expertise in the region, CDKN supported two new studies focusing on Central Asia. The first study explored Tajikistan’s energy sector’s vulnerability to climate change impacts. The second one took a regional approach, highlighting the likely impacts of climate change on Central Asia’s energy sector. Since power supply in the Central Asian countries are connected via transboundary rivers (used for hydropower generation) and interconnected grids, it is important to understand the potential impacts of climate change at national and regional levels.

The work primarily focussed on three major tasks:

• Climate Risk Assessment of Energy Infrastructure;
• Climate Risk Mitigation and Adaptation; and
• Cost-Benefit Analysis of the Climate Risk Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies.

Methodology

Building on a methodology designed and piloted by the ESMAP team, the project utilised a participatory process including workshops, consultations, and brainstorming on adaptation options. Existing efforts and knowledge from the region also formed part of the study.

On completion of the studies, the project documented the methodological approach and lessons from its application, along with a summary of the workshop outputs, for broader dissemination. A toolkit reflecting updated and refined information and experience from the studies has been made available.

Target Audience

The target audience for these studies is primarily governments and energy utilities in each Central Asian country, although several donors, investors and civil society organizations will find the studies useful for decision making purposes.

Outcomes

The project has assisted governments and organisations to build capacity and address vulnerability in the energy sector at the national, as well as, regional levels.

The innovative regional component has also brought together sectors, countries and institutions to generate over and above benefits to any single country and promote collective learning and decision-making.

CDKN funding: £350,000