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PROJECT: Low Carbon Scenario Analysis for Pakistan

Project Reference: RSAS-0019

Pakistan is a developing country that is impacted by climate change, while being a small contributor to global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. National emissions will increase with population, economic, industrial and urban growth. Appropriate low-carbon interventions can help to ensure that Pakistan remains a low emitter as the country develops, without hampering growth. To determine what this future could look like, there is an urgent need to improve the evidence base surrounding GHG emissions and mitigation options in Pakistan. This low-carbon analysis will help plan and implement strategies that respond to priorities identified in the National Climate Change Plan and Framework for Action on Climate Change, while furthering national development goals.

The project will:

  • Improve understanding of low-carbon options – identification of priority opportunities for low-carbon development; and
  • Improve mitigation planning – creation of the evidence base for INDCs, national communications, GHG inventory, Biennial Update Reports, Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) and REDD+ actions.

What is a Low-carbon Scenario Assessment?

The low-carbon scenario assessment includes a bottom-up technical analysis of mitigation opportunities that are compared against a reference case that captures existing policies and measures already in place.  The analysis will demonstrate how mitigation actions can contribute to low-carbon pathways in the six sectors set out in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC): energy, transport, industry, agriculture, forestry and waste. The first step in the assessment will be the development of sectoral greenhouse gas emissions baselines from 2000 to 2010. Emissions will then be projected out to 2030 to create the reference case, against which abatement potential will be estimated for the six mitigation sectors. Potential mitigation actions will be reviewed to identity those that offer greatest opportunity for encouraging emissions reductions, align with Government of Pakistan priorities, and result in sustainable development benefits.





The analysis will include a report that includes chapters on the reference case and the technical assessment in six sectors. The analysis of the six sectors will include a business as usual (BAU) reference case, and an assessment of how low-carbon options can bend down emissions relative to BAU. Additionally the assessment will include a development impacts scan and a short discussion of feasibility of implementation.

The assumptions and results will be locally validated by Pakistan experts through a series of bi-lateral engagement meetings on both the development of the baseline and the mitigation options. An Advisory Group including key local partners the Centre for Climate Research and Development (CCRD) and PITCO will provide guidance and input, Pakistan experts will review the outputs for each sector, and the results of the work will be validated at a dissemination event held in Islamabad. CCRD will also serve as an organizing and feedback partner for the international technical team providing the project with an opportunity for local validation and input.

CDKN Funding: £318,686.75

Project Manager: Fareeha Irfan Ovais (

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