Pakistan is a developing country that is impacted by climate change, while being a small contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions. National emissions will increase with population, economic, industrial and urban growth. Appropriate low-carbon interventions can help to ensure that Pakistan remains a low emitter as the country develops, without hampering growth. To determine what this future could look like, there is an urgent need to improve the evidence base surrounding emissions and mitigation options in Pakistan. This low-carbon analysis has helped plan and implement strategies that respond to priorities identified in the National Climate Change Plan and Framework for Action on Climate Change, while furthering national development goals.

The project:

• Improved understanding of low-carbon options – identifying priority opportunities for low-carbon development; and
• Improved mitigation planning – created the evidence base for INDCs, national communications, greenhouse gas inventory, Biennial Update Reports, Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (NAMAs) and REDD+ actions.

What is a Low-carbon Scenario Assessment?

The low-carbon scenario assessment includes a bottom-up technical analysis of mitigation opportunities that are compared against a reference case that captures existing policies and measures already in place.  The analysis demonstrates how mitigation actions can contribute to low-carbon pathways in the six sectors set out in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC): energy, transport, industry, agriculture, forestry and waste. The first step in the assessment was the development of sectoral greenhouse gas emissions baselines from 2000 to 2010. Emissions have then been projected out to 2030 to create the reference case, against which abatement potential has been estimated for the six mitigation sectors. Potential mitigation actions have been reviewed to identity those that offer greatest opportunity for encouraging emissions reductions, align with Government of Pakistan priorities, and result in sustainable development benefits.

Methodology

Outputs

The analysis includes a report that contains chapters on the reference case and the technical assessment in six sectors. The analysis of the six sectors includes a business as usual (BAU) reference case, and an assessment of how low-carbon options can bend down emissions relative to BAU. Additionally the assessment will include a development impacts scan and a short discussion of feasibility of implementation.

The assumptions and results have been locally validated by Pakistan experts through a series of bi-lateral engagement meetings on both the development of the baseline and the mitigation options. An Advisory Group including key local partners the Centre for Climate Research and Development (CCRD) and PITCO provided guidance and input, Pakistan experts have reviewed the outputs for each sector, and the results of the work have been validated at a dissemination event held in Islamabad. CCRD served as an organizing and feedback partner for the international technical team providing the project with an opportunity for local validation and input.

CDKN Funding: £318,686.75