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Research on the impact of climate change on achievement of the post-2015 development agenda

Project Reference: ADGL-0030

Climate change is one of several critical factors that will determine whether the post-2015 development agenda is achieved. The outcome of the COP21 agreement, to be decided by countries in Paris this December, therefore has the potential to affect delivery of the post-2015 development agenda through its impact on climate change and the impact of efforts to address climate change, over the period 2015-2030. At the same time implementation of the post-2015 development agenda has the potential to affect the achievement of climate change mitigation and adaptation objectives of the UNFCCC.

Understanding the inter-connection between the two processes is important for ensuring that the post-2015 development agenda promotes climate compatible development, and for ensuring that the COP21 agreement contributes to the development agenda. To facilitate this and enable more informed decision-making processes, research is required to explain how climate change will impact implementation and achievement of the post-2015 development goals.

This short-term research project seeks to fill a knowledge gap by investigating the development impacts projected for varying levels of climate ambition in the 2015 climate deal, as such a deal will necessarily impact on national decision making around resource allocation and development priorities. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are used as a lens through which to measure and frame the question: How can the global climate agreement affect development in the period to 2030?

A broader regional scale assessment of Africa, Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is complemented by deep dives into 3 case study countries/regions: Uganda, Pakistan and the Caribbean. This selection of climate vulnerable countries gives a representative coverage of a least developed country (LDC), a middle income country (MIC) and a small island developing state (SIDS), all of which are groups of countries with particular development challenges.

Negotiators and the development community should find the outputs of this research useful to advocate for a stronger climate deal, and to ensure that the SDGs deliver climate smart development in the poorest and most climate vulnerable countries.

The interim research paper from the project was presented at COP20 in Lima in December 2014: Raising the ambition: How the global climate agreement can affect the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals

CDKN Funding: GBP 94,000

CDKN Project Manager: Helen Picot


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