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Developing integrated Climate Risk Assessment for CCD planning in Central Asia

Project Reference: RSAS-0016

Central Asia (CA) is one of the world’s most vulnerable regions to current climate variability and the impacts of future climate change. Climate change is likely to manifest in CA as: increasing temperatures; changing rainfall patterns; increasing aridity; an increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events and climate-related disasters (such as floods, droughts, mudslides, avalanches and landslides). Indeed, trends over the last few decades indicate that these predicted changes are already being experienced in CA countries, and current climate variability is already adversely impacting development, especially on sectors such as water, agriculture, and energy.

Although the region is prone to earthquakes, the majority of disasters are triggered by hydro meteorological hazards, including drought, floods, extreme temperatures and rainfall-related landslides; all of which are likely to increase under a changing climate. Unless timely, coordinated and sustainable Climate Risk Management (CRM) measures are implemented, CA is likely to experience considerable economic loss, humanitarian stresses and environmental degradation as a result of climate-related disasters and incremental change in climate conditions.

Considering that both current variability and future changes need to be adequately addressed and adapted to, Climate Risk Management (CRM) combining Climate Change Adaptation (CCA) and Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) is recognised as an appropriate response, as it includes a combination of climate-related disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation.

The need to, and challenges associated with, integrating DRR and CCA approaches is fairly well known among the respective policy makers, practitioners and other stakeholders. However, addressing climate change impacts through the perspective of risks is quite innovative.  There is a fair body of literature which looks at integrating various aspects of DRR and CCA, and at CRM, in theory. How best to go about integrating these fields, and how this can be achieved in practice, are much less clear.

There is not yet any established methodology for undertaking comprehensive climate risk assessments which considers short to medium term climate-related disaster risk as well as longer term climate change risks. This is the challenge that CDKN and the UNDP Climate Risk Management (CRM) Programme in CA are jointly undertaking, along with local partner Camp Alatoo (Kg)

The partners, with UNDP leading the initiative, have initiated a project in CA to develop a sound methodology for a regional climate risk assessment and the development of corresponding national climate risk profiles, which are to provide solid boundary conditions at the regional level and a knowledge basis for an effective introduction of CRM in policy making for sustainable development in each of the five CA countries.

The project aims to result in the following:

  • A practical guidebook on conducting a Climate Risk Assessment based on the integrated methodology to be developed
  • National Climate Risk Profiles for pilot country developed in accordance with the methodology
  • Recommendations for CCD policy planning, using the CRA results

Project outputs and resources:

Assessment guide: Climate Risk Assessment Guide – Central Asia

CDKN Funding: GBP 77,000

Project Manager: Dina Khan

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