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The Economics of Climate Change in Central America: Summary 2010

The study establishes a macroeconomic scenario without climate change trend against which the cost of the phenomenon is measured. It uses “bottom up” impact analysis of key sectors and areas such as agriculture, water resources, extreme events and ecosystem services, making later an economic valuation as a function of GDP. Challenges and options for adaptation and low carbon development options are explored. A future scenario to 2100 is adopted (instead of 2200) with cuts by 2020, 2030, 2050 and 2070 to estimate impacts and costs, maintaining a long term perspective in order to demonstrate that risks grow over time, particularly in the second half of this century, considering the limitations of historical data series. For mitigation options a time frame up to 2030 is adopted due to uncertainty about technological changes, with cuts by 2010 and 2020.