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emission scenarios

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A plausible representation of the future development of emissions of substances that are potentially radiatively active (e.g., greenhouse gases, aerosols), based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about driving forces (such as demographic and socioeconomic development, technological change) and their key relationships. Concentration scenarios, derived from emission scenarios, are used as input to a climate model to compute climate projections. In IPCC (1992) a set of emission scenarios was presented which were used as a basis for the climate projections in IPCC (1996). These emission scenarios are referred to as the IS92 scenarios. In the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (Nakic4enovic4 and Swart, 2000) new emission scenarios, the so-called SRES scenarios, were published. (IPCC)

Related terms:
climate predictions, greenhouse gas emissions

Broader terms:
emissions, uncertainty

Narrower terms:
Global emission scenarios, emission paths, emission futures

Linked data frontend for emission scenarios.