Agriculture – Latin America
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According to the Fifth Assessment Report, changes in agricultural productivity with consequences for food security are expected to vary considerably across the region. In Southeastern South America, where projections indicate more rainfall, average productivity could be sustained or even increased until the mid-century. But in Central America, northeast of Brazil and parts of the Andean region, increases in temperature and decreases in rainfall could decrease agricultural productivity in the short term (by 2030), threatening the food security of the poorest populations. Considering that South America will be a key food-producing region in the future, one of the challenges will be to increase food quality and production while maintaining environmental sustainability in a changing climate.
The IPCC highlights many of the substantial development benefits that low-carbon development can achieve. For example, new techniques to deliver climate-smart agriculture – especially if they involve changes in land tenure and land-use rights – bear the risk of marginalising smallholder farmers and forest users. However, given appropriate arrangements and incentives to manage these risks, such measures could provide social benefits and promote equity.