Simulated resilience of tropical rainforests to CO2-induced climate change
This study finds that tropical forests are unlikely to disappear as a result of the predicted rise of greenhouse gases this century. However, assessing potential future carbon loss from tropical forests is important for evaluating the efficacy of programmes for reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation. This study presents a systematic exploration of various sources of uncertainty, along with uncertainty arising from different emissions scenarios for all three main tropical forest regions: the Americas (i.e. Amazonia and Central America), Africa and Asia. Using simulations with 22 climate models and the MOSES–TRIFFID land surface scheme, the study found that in all but one simulation, rainforests across the regions retained their carbon stocks even as atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration increased. The study, therefore, concludes that despite uncertainties, there seems to be evidence of forest resilience for all three regions.