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Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Environmental Suitability for Malaria Transmission in West Africa

The study indicates that the malaria situation in West Africa is not likely to worsen with climate change.

The authors assessed the effect of climate change on malaria transmission in West Africa. The study coupled a detailed mechanistic hydrology and entomology model with climate projections from general circulation models (GCMs) to predict changes in vectorial capacity, an indication of the risk of human malaria infections, resulting from changes in the availability of mosquito breeding sites and temperature-dependent development rates.

The findings of the research highlight the importance of rainfall in shaping the impact of climate change on malaria transmission in future climates. Even under the general circulation model predictions most conducive to malaria transmission, the authors do not expect to see a significant increase in malaria prevalence in this region.