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Extreme weather events and crop price spikes in a changing climate: illustrative global simulation scenarios

Agriculture is highly sensitive to climate variability and weather extremes. Various impact studies have considered the effects of projected long-run trends in temperature, precipitation and carbon dioxide concentrations caused by climate change on global food production and prices. However, according to this study, an area that remains underexplored is the food price impacts that may result from an expected increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. The study uses a global dynamic multi-region computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to explore the potential food price impacts of a number of extreme weather event scenarios in 2030 for each of the main exporting regions for rice, maize and wheat.