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Bangladesh 2020: An Analysis of Growth Prospect and External Sector Behaviour

External factors such as export, import, remittances and foreign aid have always played important roles to Bangladesh’s economy, though the relative importance of various external factors has changed over time. This study has analysed the trend, structure and changing features of the external sector of Bangladesh. Based on the past performance and changes in the global economy, the study has projected the growth prospect and likely behaviour of Bangladesh’s external sector under three scenarios: (i) optimistic scenario (8% GDP growth per annum), (ii) business as usual scenario (6% GDP growth per annum), and (iii) base case scenario (4% GDP growth per annum). Under these three scenarios, the study has projected the level of total GDP and per capita GDP of Bangladesh till FY2020. Projections are made about the required level of exports, imports, remittances, foreign aid and foreign investment to attain a consistent GDP growth at the rate of 4%, 6% and 8% up to the year 2020.