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Modelling the implications of socio-economic development of mitigation actions by developing countries

Also posted in Spanish

Project Reference: AAAF-0011

Both developed and developing countries, in the long-term, will need to contribute to mitigation. However, developing countries face the key challenge of achieving both development and climate objectives. In considering mitigation actions, policy makers need to consider the costs and benefits of embarking on a low carbon development path. In addition policy makers will need to consider the socio-economic implications of any action which is vital for planning but also for garnering political support.

CDKN is supporting a project led by the Energy Research Centre at the University of Cape Town, which will develop cutting edge methodologies to link sectoral (e.g. energy, agriculture, land use) and economy wide models in order to address issues critical to the development of climate-compatible policy. These methodologies will be developed through South-South collaboration which provides a developing country context and a robust base for processes in countries considering Mitigation Action Plans and Scenarios (MAPS). The premise is that there exists a core of models and tools that can be shared by the different countries (Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru and South Africa) and that this model can be adjusted for the country context’s and sectors.

The research organisations are part of the MAPS programme and the information generated will be available to facilitate stakeholder processes in each country working on low carbon development paths. The project will build appropriate modelling tools with each country team drawing on its existing modelling strengths and contributing to shared learning.

The project aims to build developing countries capacity to reconcile top-down and bottom-up modelling approaches which are critical to inform policy- a challenge which has been addressed globally. In addition, the project aims to contribute to climate compatible development through the production of high quality information which enables decision-makers to plan a transition to a low-carbon and climate-resilient economy and society. The consortium will deliver in-country research and other products during the two year period, but will also leave behind capacity to address these questions beyond the time-frame of the project.

Download the research case study here

Project Update:

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  • VIDEO: COP19 Side event:

Research Papers

Brazil mitigation scenarious beyond 2020: modelling and methodologies

Economy -wide implications of a carbon tax in the Chilean electricity generation sector 

Modelling the socio-economic implications of mitigation actions in Colombia

Socio-economic implications of mitigation in the power sector including carbon taxes

Linking sectoral models: Agroforestry Systems as CER providers: An analysis for the Peruvian amazon region.

Information for a developmental approach to mitigationLinking sectoral and economy-wide models for Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru and South Africa


Brazilian Mitigation Scenarios Beyond 2020: Modelling and Methodologies



Project lead: Energy Research Centre, University of Cape Town

Project partners: CentroClima/LIMA/PPE/COPPE/UFRJ, Energy Centre-FCFM, University of Chile, Energy Strategic Research Centre, Universad de los Andes and the Peruvian Amazon Research Institute.

Region/country: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru and South Africa

CDKN funding: £500,000

Project Manager: Shenhaaz Moosa

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Project Highlights