Addressing the vulnerability of the energy sector to the impacts of climate change in Central Asia
Project Reference: TAAS-0031
Changes in weather patterns and extreme conditions due to climate change have severe implications for the energy sector. Such changes can disrupt and affect the energy supply, oil and gas production, and power distribution, among other things. As such, the energy infrastructure in most Central Asian countries is highly sensitive to climate change impacts.
The Central Asia region also remains the most energy-inefficient in the world both in terms of production and consumption. Yet, energy demand in the region is expected to rise by 2030 with fossil fuels being the prime source of energy production. In fact, Tajikistan, along with a few other central Asian countries, has huge potential to generate power using hydro and thermal power.
To ensure climate resilient energy infrastructure and continued provision of basic services to the public and industry, governments in these countries need to understand the inherent vulnerabilities in their energy sectors. They also need to develop flexible adaptation strategies for existing and planned infrastructure.
Scope of Work
CDKN is partnering with the World Bank’s ESMAP (Energy Sector Management Assistance Program) to tackle these issues. Building on ESMAP’s existing work and expertise in the region, CDKN is supporting two new studies focusing on Central Asia. The first study will explore Tajikistan’s energy sector’s vulnerability to climate change impacts. The second one will take a regional approach and will highlight the likely impacts of climate change on Central Asia’s energy sector. Since power supply in the Central Asian countries are connected via transboundary rivers (used for hydropower generation) and interconnected grids, it is important to understand the potential impacts of climate change at national and regional levels.
The work will primarily focus on three major tasks:
- Climate Risk Assessment of Energy Infrastructure;
- Climate Risk Mitigation and Adaptation; and
- Cost-Benefit Analysis of the Climate Risk Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies.
Building on a methodology designed and piloted by the ESMAP team, the project will utilise a participatory process including workshops, consultations, and brainstorming on adaptation options. Existing efforts and knowledge from the region will also form part of the study.
On completion of the studies, the project will document the methodological approach and lessons from its application, along with a summary of the workshop outputs, for broader dissemination. A toolkit reflecting updated and refined information and experience from the studies will also be made available.
The target audience for these studies is primarily governments and energy utilities in each Central Asian country, although several donors, investors and civil society organizations will find the studies useful for decision making purposes.
The project will assist governments and organisations to build capacity and address vulnerability in the energy sector at the national, as well as, regional levels.
The innovative regional component also has the potential to bring together sectors, countries and institutions to generate over and above benefits to any single country and promote collective learning and decision-making.
CDKN funding: £350,000
Project Manager: Elizabeth Colebourn